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Grammy Predictions

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Grammy Predictions

So the Grammys are finally upon us.

This Sunday night, pop music’s heavy-hitters will sit awkwardly in a theatre in L.A. and wait with bated breath as nameless, faceless “Grammy voters” decide which artists actually made good music over the past year or so. They will likely be completely wrong. The performances should be ok though (Bob Dylan, Dr. Dre and Eminem, and Lady Gaga are just some of the acts slated to take the stage). And of course, I’m hoping for some backstage drama or an absurdly scandalous on stage incident to dominate the headlines Monday morning. We all are.

In the meantime, check out my predictions regarding the Big Four this Sunday; Album of the Year, Song of the Year, Best New Artist, and Record of the Year. I’ll abstain from touching on any of the more genre-specific awards because they’re super easy to predict. For example, you may be wondering who is going to win Best Rap Album. Here’s a hint; since Eminem’s Recovery is the only Rap Album nominated for Album of the Year, it’s safe to assume he’ll win Best Rap Album. Arcade Fire is a lock of Best Rock Album, and Lady Antebellum will definitely win Best Country Album.

The following categories are the actual toss-ups. Tell us what you think in the comments section below.

Album of the Year
» Arcade Fire – The Suburbs
» Eminem – Recovery
» Lady Antebellum – Need You Now
» Lady Gaga – The Fame Monster
» Katy Perry – Teenage Dream

Who will win: As the biggest and most divisive award of the night, Album of the Year is notoriously hard to predict. We have to think about it in terms of voting blocks. Katy Perry doesn’t stand a chance, mainly because her album just ain’t that good. But since she’ll certainly rack up some of the pop vote, she makes a win for Lady Gaga less likely, which sucks. I’d say it’s basically between The Arcade Fire and Eminem, and I’m leaning towards Eminem here. But beware; the Grammys love to blindside you with a win for the least-interesting nominee. And since there’s no other country nominee to split the vote, Lady Antebellum could definitely make an upset.

Record of the Year
» B.o.B (featuring Bruno Mars) – “Nothin’ on You”
» Eminem (featuring Rihanna) – “Love the Way You Lie”
» Cee Lo Green – “F— You”
» Jay-Z and Alicia Keys – “Empire State of Mind”
» Lady Antebellum – “Need You Now”

Who will win: A win for B.O.B.’s absolute worst song would be really annoying, so I’m arbitrarily crossing his name off the list. The remaining contenders are heavyweights, but I’d say this one has to go to “Love The Way You Lie.” The production is crisp and the vocal performances from Eminem and Rihanna are absolutely stunning.

Best New Artist
» Justin Bieber
» Drake
» Florence & the Machine
» Mumford & Sons
» Esperanza Spalding

Who will win: I’m not one of those pathetic Justin Bieber haters that insist on trashing this kid every chance they get, but I really can’t see how a self-respecting adult could vote for him as Best New Artist when he doesn’t even write his own material, and his fanbase is generally 13 year-old girls. Just seems unlikely. My personal choice would be Drake, and I think a win for him is a definite possibility. But my money is on Florence & the Machine. Not only is Florence a phenomenal artist, but the Grammys absolutely love quirky female singer-songwriters with pop sensibilities. I’ll be shocked if she loses.

Song of the Year
» Ray LaMontagne – “Beg Steal or Borrow”
» Cee Lo Green – “F— You”
» Miranda Lambert – “The House That Built Me”
» Eminem (featuring Rihanna) – “Love the Way You Lie”
» Lady Antebellum – “Need You Now”

Who will win: In case you were wondering, the difference between Record of the Year and Song of the Year is that while Record of the Year recognizes those involved in the execution of the performance of a song (the performer, producer, mixer, etc.), Song of the Year recognizes the composer or songwriter behind the track. Surveying the nominees, I’d say it comes down to “Need You Now” and “Fuck You.” The Grammys love country songwriting, but “Fuck You” is just beyond infectious. Look for Cee Lo to take the gold; it’s the most improbably ubiquitous record of the year, bar none.